Win and we're in.

The Sugar Bears travel to Natchitoches, La. to face Northwestern State on Saturday in the regular season finale with both teams vying for the 8th and final spot in this year's Southland Conference Basketball Tournament. A Central Arkansas win would secure the 9th consecutive appearance for the Sugar Bears, who have qualified for the 8-team tournament every season since becoming Division I postseason eligible in 2011 following the four-year reclassification period with the move up from Division II.

A loss, however, complicates matters.

A NSU win would put both the Sugar Bears and Lady Demons at 6-12 in Southland play with a head-to-head split in the season series. The next tiebreaker scenario looks at how each team performed against the highest positioned team that both tied teams played twice during the season. Both went 0-2 against Nicholls, but by virtue of going 2-0 against Southeastern Louisiana the Lady Demons would own the tiebreaker over the Sugar Bears – who were 1-1 against the Lady Lions.

But it's not that simple. 

Incarnate Word sits a game back of the Sugar Bears and Lady Demons at 5-11. Even with an NSU win, if the Cardinals were to score an upset at Abilene Christian, it would create a three-team tie that would trigger a different tiebreaker scenario. In that scenario, the Sugar Bears would get the tournament bid, as the only team each of UCA, NSU and UIW played twice was Stephen F. Austin – which swept all three squads – and the next step in breaking the tie is comparing the tied teams' records against one another. The Sugar Bears would be 2-1 against NSU and UIW in that scenario, while NSU would be 1-2 and UIW 1-1. 

So win, and advance. Lose, and hope for an Incarnate Word victory.

It will be the second matchup of the season between the Sugar Bears and the Lady Demons, with the Sugar Bears winning 74-52 in the Farris Center. In that one, the Sugar Bears outrebounded the Lady Demons 49-23, getting 26 offensive rebounds, and outscoring NSU 45-28 in the 2nd half including a 24-9 fourth quarter. Kamry Orr led the Sugar Bears in that one with 26 points, 5 steals, 3 assists and 4 rebounds, Alanie Fisher logged a double-double with 13 points and 13 rebounds, and Alana Canady had 13 points and 8 rebounds.

The Sugar Bears will be going for their sixth straight win over the Lady Demons, and fourth straight at Prather Coliseum – last losing in Natchitoches in 2015. 

GAME INFORMATION
CENTRAL ARKANSAS (11-16, 6-11 Southland) at Northwestern State (10-18, 5-12)
March 9, 2019 • 1:00pm • Prather Coliseum • Natchitoches, La.

MULTIMEDIA
Video
Radio: The Bear 91.3 (pregame begins 12:40)
Live Stats
On Twitter: @ucasports @ucascoreboard @ucawbb

SERIES HISTORY
Central Arkansas leads 16-12
9-5 under Coach Rushing
8-6 in Natchitoches
Sugar Bears won last 5 overall, last 3 in Natchitoches


STATISTICAL LEADERS
Central Arkansas
Points Per Game: Kamry Orr (15.6)
Rebounds Per Game: Hannah Langhi & Alanie Fisher (4.5)
Assists Per Game: Kamry Orr (3.5)
Blocks: Hannah Langhi (14)
Steals: Kamry Orr (64)

Northwestern State
Points Per Game: RaVon Nero (12.2)
Rebounds Per Game: Victoria Miller (4.8)
Assists Per Game: Sami Thomas (3.0)
Blocks: Libba Gilliam (18)
Steals: Jasmyn Johnson (54)

NOTES

• Kamry Orr ranks 3rd in the Southland in scoring at 15.6 points per game – including 17.4 points per game in conference play. In Southland games, she also ranks 5th in assists at 4.4 per game and 2nd in steals with 2.8 per game while also ranking 2nd in free throws made (88) and 4th in free throw percentage (82.2)

• The Sugar Bears rank 2nd in the Southland and 44th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 57.9 points per game. The Lady Demons are among the national leaders in steals – ranking 4th with 12.5 per game – and in turnovers forced, ranking 3rd with 24.1 per game. In this season's first meeting, the Sugar Bears committed just 16 turnovers and outscored NSU 25-14 in points off of turnovers. 

• The Sugar Bears have used 21 different starting lineups this season, and have had a total of 28 games missed due to injury.

• This will be the Sugar Bears' first sub-.500 conference record since 2013, and just the fourth time in the program's 13 years in the Southland. With one regular season game and the possibility of up to 4 Southland tournament games remaining, the Sugar Bears are in danger of finishing a season below .500 for the first time since 2008-09 when they were 6-23 overall and 2-14 in Southland play.

• Of the Sugar Bears' 11 league losses, seven have been by single digits with an average margin of just 5.7 points in those defeats.